TWC Group opened its 2026 supplier conference calendar with a high‑impact presentation from Insights Director, Jayne Webb, at the Nestlé Professional Kick-Off Meeting: Ambition in Action – Thriving Through Change. Jayne delivered a comprehensive overview of the UK economic landscape and the latest performance trends across the hospitality channel—highlighting both the pressures facing the market and the opportunities emerging for operators and suppliers.
Economic Conditions Remain Challenging – But Consumers Are Still Spending
Despite easing inflation, household finances remain under strain, with consumer confidence sitting at historically low levels. Over half of UK adults now describe their financial situation as “dire”, “struggling”, or “just about OK”.
At the same time, food and drink manufacturers face rising costs and policy uncertainty, including increases to the National Minimum Wage, higher business rates, and new regulatory measures such as HFSS advertising restrictions and the extension of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy.
Yet, despite these pressures, the total hospitality market continues to grow in value. Consumers have not stopped spending—they are simply becoming more selective.
Hospitality Market: Value Growth Driven by Frequency and Spend
TWC’s Channel Track data shows that hospitality value grew over the past year, supported by increased visit frequency and higher spend per transaction. Independents outperformed chains across all key KPIs, driven by more shoppers, more visits, and higher average spend.
Fast food, coffee shops, and takeaway channels delivered the strongest growth, with independents consistently outperforming their chain counterparts.
Independents Win with Older, More Affluent, Less Price‑Sensitive Consumers
There is a clear shift in consumer behaviour. Growth in independents is being driven by:
- Male consumers aged 45+
- Mid‑ to high‑affluence groups
- Shoppers who are less price‑sensitive and less digitally dependent
These consumers are intentionally choosing independents as a “culture corrective” to mass‑market dining—seeking authenticity, community, and quality.
Chains Succeed When They Tailor to Local Needs
Within the chain sector, performance varies widely. There is no single “winning” consumer profile. Instead, the most successful operators are those who tailor their offer to the specific needs of their local customer base.
The example of Lounge Bars illustrates this point: a flexible, community‑centric model that adapts to local demographics while maintaining a consistent core offer. This approach has driven strong turnover growth of +15%.
Location Intelligence as a Strategic Advantage
A major theme of the presentation was the growing importance of location intelligence. Operators are increasingly using data to guide:
- Site selection
- Menu development
- Local marketing
- Digital strategy
- Customer experience design
Suppliers, too, can use this intelligence to build stronger propositions and become strategic partners—offering insight‑led solutions rather than relying on discounting.
Case Study: Gail’s
Jayne showcased how Gail’s leverages data to replicate a proven model in the right locations. Their sweet spots include:
- Strong weekend trade
- High‑value transactions (£5–£10)
- Local catchments
- An “affordable premium” positioning
Opportunities remain in weekday missions, lower‑value grab‑and‑go, and mid‑range travel distances—areas where digital ordering and delivery could unlock further growth.
Digital Ownership and the Shift Away from Aggregators
Another notable trend is the move from third‑party delivery aggregators to direct digital ordering. Operators are increasingly using their own branded apps while still relying on aggregator riders for fulfilment. This shift gives operators:
- Direct customer ownership
- Better loyalty and CRM capability
- Greater control of the experience
- Improved operational efficiency
Weather, Events and External Factors Still Matter
The warm summer of 2025 boosted categories such as water, though the absence of major sporting events meant less uplift compared to 2024’s Euros….but 2026 has the FIFA World Cup AND the summer Olympics to look forward to.
A £1bn Growth Opportunity
Looking ahead, TWC forecasts that if one‑third of the population were to eat out just once more per quarter, the market could unlock £1 billion in additional value per annum.
The Winning Formula for 2026
The operators who will win in 2026 are those who combine data‑led decision‑making with human‑centred hospitality. The key pillars include:
- Location intelligence and tailored offers
- Experience-led value (experience > price)
- Personalisation and loyalty
- Digital ownership
- Strong customer service
For suppliers, the opportunity lies in helping operators differentiate – through better products, sharper insights, and strategic partnership…and also targeting the foodservice/hospitality outlets which are currently being used by their target audience rather than a scatter gun approach of trying to gain distribution anywhere.
Read more on Channel Track.
