TWC Group was delighted to deliver the market update at this year’s Unitas Senior Supplier Trade Briefing, held on Thursday 29th January 2026 in the stunning surroundings of Painter’s Hall, near St Paul’s Cathedral. The session was presented by Tom Fender, Development Director at TWC Group, to an audience of around 120 senior supplier execs.
Much of the insight shared came from TWC’s new market measurement service, Channel Track, launched at the end of 2025 to deliver accurate and timely market performance measurements across wholesale, foodservice and convenience retail.
Economic Context: Glimmers of Positivity Amid Ongoing Pressure
With overall and food inflation nudging upward again and consumer budgets still under strain, pressure on household finances remains very real. Still, there are a few small signs of positive shifts emerging in consumer sentiment.
According to the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, overall confidence improved marginally this month—up one point to –16, and confidence in future finances over the next 12 months rose to +6 (8 points higher than a year ago). Younger adults are showing a much faster recovery in confidence than older consumers.
TWC’s own Personal & Household Tracker Index—launched in late 2024—offers further nuance. Between June 2025 and January 2026, the percentage of UK adults saying their finances are “dire” or “struggling” rose from 15.0% to 17.4%, yet those reporting their situation as “good” or “excellent” also increased significantly, from 13.4% to 18.0%.
Encouragingly, 46% of consumers now say they’re able to save money each month—up from 37% in April 2025. Saving doesn’t necessarily stimulate economic recovery but combined with improving sentiment, these measures give a glimmer of hope that things could be improving as we head towards 2027—provided no external shocks intervene.
Market Performance: Unitas Members Outperforming the Market
Tom then shared a performance read-out from SmartView Convenience (SVC) – TWC’s market read for the independent convenience channel. The data shows that Unitas-affiliated stores are significantly outperforming the SVC market by several percentage points over the last 13 weeks
Across foodservice, Channel Track reports +2% outlet sales growth for 2025, while Unitas members supplying foodservice are significantly ahead of the market. Using wholesale shipment data as a proxy—given the absence of direct EPOS data – TWC identified that Unitas members’ shipments to hospitality outlets were over 10 percentage points ahead of hospitality EPOS sales for 2025.
Foodservice: Independents Driving Growth
New data from Channel Track highlights the pivotal role of independent operators in foodservice growth. Independents represent 45% of total foodservice sales and are outperforming chains across almost every major sub-channel:
· Pubs/Bars: Independents +1.5% vs chains –0.6%
· Restaurants: Independents +4.7% vs chains –5.2%
· Coffee/Café: Both growing, with indies slightly ahead
· Fast Food: Independents +9.1% vs chains +1.0%
Alongside this structural shift, TWC revealed new consumer insights collected just a week before the event:
· 78% of UK adults expect to dine out in restaurants at least once per quarter in 2026
· 6.5 million expect to dine out weekly
· 34% are now “coasting”—choosing drinks with around half the ABV of the original product. (This survey covers ALL UK consumers, NatRep – meaning that those who are teetotal were asked their views)
· 34% want smaller portion sizes—likely influenced by the rapid uptake of weight-loss medications, which may exceed official estimates. However, we must see the initiatives that Greggs, Coop, M&S and many others are implementing – this is a real consumer shift towards health.
Retail: Fascia Growth and Huge Untapped Shopper Potential
TWC’s retail insights reinforced that symbol group recruitment remains the right strategy for wholesalers and suppliers. Fascia stores deliver:
· +30% higher sales per store vs unaffiliated independents
· Stronger core range compliance
· Better promotional execution
· Greater NPD availability
With an estimated 3.5 billion visits to UK independent convenience stores annually, the potential touchpoints for brands are enormous.
TWC also emphasised several key shopper behaviours:
· 68% of consumers snacked the previous day—more than those who ate breakfast
· 56% still buy on impulse when shopping
· 16% would use their local c-store more if it stocked more NPD
· 18% would visit more often if stores offered better “meal for tonight” solutions
Tom encouraged the industry not to assume that consumers eat three fixed meals a day—and to consider new “snack deal” mechanics to reflect evolving consumer habits.
The £2bn Opportunity
To conclude, there is a joint opportunity for wholesale, retail and supplier partners: two potential £1bn gains.
1. Convenience Retail: If every independent and symbol store were to generate just one more transaction per day, with 10% of these containing one additional item, the channel could unlock around £1bn in annual value.
2. Eating Out of Home: If one-third of UK adults added just one more dining occasion per quarter, the out-of-home market could similarly realise £1bn in additional sales.
Summary
Despite tough conditions, consumers are still spending. Independents are growing faster than chains in foodservice, while fascia stores are outperforming unaffiliated independents in retail. Unitas members are delivering market-leading performance across both retail and foodservice, supported by strong execution and an appetite for data-led decision-making.
With two £1bn opportunities within reach, the message was clear: There are significant opportunities for suppliers to collaborate with Unitas and its membership to identify, target and capture growth.
